Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Serious Portfolio Adjustments!

After reading the weekly sentiment report and comparing it to the previous one, I got a bit scared about some parts of my portfolio, although they were all sort of safe small trades. I do try to time the market a bit as well, so I thought after the huge rally we have had and with sell side suggesting to go all in cash or trade short, I should make some serious change of strategy.

I bought to close both MSFT and JAVA naked puts as a precaution + sold all my C calls with a gain of 500% at 88c/contract. I am only left with MAR calls + CTIC + GDX naked puts. Now most of my focus would be on GDX naked puts as well as new trading ideas. I was trying to pick some AAPL options, but the price I was asking didn't hit. That could be good with INTC disappointing results tonight, since I may be able to enter it at a cheaper price. I was thinking of AAPL $150 May call options. I am not too certain if AAPL would have a surprising report as there are some investors writing bearish option spreads on AAPL. So, I either get a good price or no deal at all! The MAR $25 May calls were cheaper today, but my bid of 11c/contract didn't go through either. I still have my hopes high for JAVA. With the gain made on selling puts, I plan to buy May, or July $9 call options on JAVA. With the new sentiment report, I am definitely looking at a bearish trade idea. It could be a weak stock put option or a leveraged ETF put option such as ERX, FAS, SSO, etc. The only problem with these ETF options is that they are usually illiquid. The other point is to enter a trade on a rally day. Shorting a 3X ETF is also a good idea, provided that you don't get squeezed and you are willing to wait. I probably would stay away from that. If nothing, I am sitting on cash. The opportunity should still come. I'll keep you posted. Let me know if you have a good trading idea.

3 comments:

  1. Smart,
    I am looking at MDR to do a call going into its earnings on May 12.

    Also check out these two free sites for some good general information;
    wishing wealth blog
    and
    http://www.pearlfisherinvestments.com/

    Pearl Fisher is headed by a German investment manager. Gives a good alternative to USA info.
    Joe

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  2. Hey Joe,

    I checked the earnings for MDR, but I don't see anything for May 12! Do you know of a price offered by Petro China for the rumor? and what call option are you looking at?

    Thanks for sharing it.

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  3. Smart,
    I checked briefing.com again and it shows an e/r on May 12.
    Go to the followig page and then put in the ticker symbol;
    http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3270

    Briefing seems to have the best info, yahoo is not showing anything on earnings for McDermott.

    The rumors are flying and call volume was up this past week. I dont like to buy options during o/e week, so I am waiting until Monday.
    I am looking at the May 17.50 calls.

    I am concerned about the petro china rumor, I am leary of these kinds of things, but with the e/r coming up and the good technicals, might be worth a fling.
    Regards, Joe

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