Thursday, May 14, 2009

Update on my portfolio

Last week's first coverage report was still somewhat bullish but not as much as before. The sell side is selective about stocks with some bearish and some bullish. There are some investors who sold and went to the sidelines. There is also a tradition that says: "Sell in May". However, the sell side says stay bullish but be nimble!

Here is the update to my portfolio:

1) I sold my CTIC for $1.32. I saw the share auction news and felt it is not a good sign. I may be wrong, but getting out with profit is always right :)

2) I closed my FSLR put spread today with less profit (about 16%). Although most likely it will expire worthless tomorrow, I again thought I should protect myself specially with yesterday's nasty sell off + yahoo finance reports that there were a lot of insider selling on FSLR a few days ago. So, there may be something wrong out there. It was a good trade, but the only problem was that sometimes, the bid/ask spread was too wide. So as soon as I saw the bid and ask gap decreased today, I closed out the position.

3) WMT: This has been such a good trade so far. Although WMT trend was not so positive, the puts are almost worthless already. The good thing about WMT is that the bid/ask spread on puts are so narrow, so it is very liquid + It is not too volatile like FSLR. I actually transferred my margin from FSLR to WMT June put options as WMT was negative today. An aggressive investor could at the same time sell bearish call spreads on WMT to double the profit. I guess this is called a box spread :) Maybe my next step should be doing these kinds of neutral trades.

4) FCX: I also wrote some bullish put spreads for June strike 36 and 35.

5) DRYS: Sold June $5 strike and bought $4 strike (I am not so sure about this, but the pullback was too much I think)

6) RIMM: Finally, I wrote a bullish put spread on RIMM with June $55 and $50 strikes.

Other than that, it seems to me that the market has sort of slowed down recently. Some shorts are aggressively looking to short stocks. However, I think it is going to be a neutral month. I want to start selling box spreads on neutral stocks. I am thinking of AMGN right now. Here are my reasons:

1) Bullish reasoning: AMGN is cheap and trading close to its 52 week low + Health Care is a bullish industry (based on first coverage)
2) Bearish reasoning: Insiders sold shares recently around $48
3) Analysts in GS recently downgrade AMGN to neurtal.

So, I was thinking of a put spread on $42.5 and $40 puts + bearish call spread on $52.5 and $55. I am just keeping and eye on this trade. The gain is about 20%. For tomorrow, I may just do nothing letting the options expire.

Let me know how you guys have been doing these days.

12 comments:

  1. smart,
    what are doing?
    joe

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi joe, I have doing very well. I just thought there is not much interest, so I decided to stop publishing my trades :) How about you?

    ReplyDelete
  3. smart,
    good to hear you are doing well. i have been doing too much thinking and not enough trading.
    i am thinking about doing some cc on uso.
    a jul38c for $1.75 against uso at $37.97 looks interesting.
    joe

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Joe,

    I have no idea how energy will do, but if you want to do CC, it would be better to do way out of the money put spread. I am mostly in cash now waiting for confirmation of either way. Selling puts spreads on good stocks on down days has worked well so far. RIMM is also a good candidate for CC by the way.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Joe,

    Be careful trading these days. Looks like most people think rally is over. we have had a big pullback on many stocks, so I am not sure what the best position is at this time. Neutral trading may work well (sell way of of the money calls and puts expiring august at the same time, and buy calls and puts on next strikes to cover sudden possible changes. If you want to stay bullish, pick a good stock like rimm and start selling way out of the money put spreads of say september with strike of $35 or $40. I am seeing there is a lot of short interest on RIMM right now, so it could go down more, but you may look at it as an opportunity to add to your put spread position. So once it bounces you will be in business. The other option I am considering is selling bearish call spreads on overbought stocks. I have a feeling that apple is overbought. Also, a neutral trade on apple may also work. (Say sell 120 put and 160 call). Do your own research and let me know of new ideas if you have some. I read the first coveregae sentiment report weekly (www.firstcoverage.com). That has helped me not do crazy things at least. Although I didn't enter bearish trades recently, I decreased my investment size and my capital is well preserved for now. How are things with you by the way?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Smart,
    I am looking at the metals. FCX looks to have support at $46, so maybe selling OTM puts.
    Also I like SLV as a leveraged play on gold. The gold to silver ratio varies from 40 to 80, favoring silver when it is high. It is at 69 now.
    Regards, Joe

    ReplyDelete
  7. Joe,

    The sentiments I read are very bearish. I have sold some FSLR put spreads $130 strike for some quick gain hopefully. Other than that, I am in cash. Just today made a neutral trade on DELL (sold $13 AUG call and $11 AUG put and bought $14 call and $10 put). I started with only 5 contracts looking for new trading strategies. I want to try some bearish call spreads too. Although, the sentiments are bearish, I gradually add to my retirement account at any weakness as I think the recovery is inevitable eventually. I also had some put spreads on FCX ($35-$30 AUG puts). I cashed in all the gains today. Some investors are buying gold miners I guess. That could also be a good investment.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hey Joe,

    I am getting more and more concerned about this economy. I just want to advise you to either go in cash or consider bearish trades as well. Look at this:

    thefinancialpuzzle.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  9. Smart,
    Are you giving up posting?
    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  10. Joe,

    If you are interested, I will post my current positions and my views. Maybe tonight or tomorrow :)

    Your FCX trade must have done really good I guess :)

    ReplyDelete
  11. Smart,
    Would like to see what you are thinking.
    FCX was a home run, closed a OTM short put spread for a profit.
    I am still in my SLV trade, got into Jan 13 calls for $1.30. Take a look at the OI on all the Jan calls. Looks like lots of positve sentiment.
    I am watching FXI, I think shorting is not allowed in China, FXI could keep running.

    Regards, Joe

    ReplyDelete
  12. It's been a long time since you have updated your blog. I hope to see you blogging again and sharing your ideas and updates on trading and investing.

    ReplyDelete